Turf War Initial
Matchmaking Rank (MMR)
Using data provided by Coxx, we know:
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Players with Splatoon 2 save data have an initial Turf War MMR range from 1600 to 2000. Currently, it is unclear what determines the exact MMR between this range.
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Players without Splatoon 2 save data have an initial Turf War MMR range from 1400 to 1800. Their initial Turf War MMR is calculated by finding n, the duration in seconds to finish the Splatoon 3 tutorial, and plugging it into this formula:
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InitialMMR = 1800 - (n - 40) x 5
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A "perfect" run for n is 40 seconds, giving a maximum initial Turf War MMR of 1800. A "bad" run for n is 120 seconds or longer, giving a minimum initial Turf War MMR of 1400.
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Therefore, you could say any new Player with an initial Turf War MMR from 1801 to 2000 is returning to the series, any new Player with an initial Turf War MMR from 1600 to 1800 could be either new or returning to the series, and finally any new Player with an initial Turf War MMR from 1400 to 1599 is new to the series.
Turf War
Predicted Win Formula
According to Inksight, prior to the beginning of a Turf War battle, the game predicts if Team Alpha or Team Bravo will win. While we do not know the exact formula used, Arpad Elo's formula gives almost exact results:
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1: Calculate each team’s average MMR and find the difference:
d = (AlphaMMR1 + AlphaMMR2 + AlphaMMR3 + AlphaMMR4) / 4 - (BravoMMR1 + BravoMMR2 + BravoMMR3 + BravoMMR4) / 4
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2: Calculate Team Alpha’s predicted win in percent:
AlphaWinPercent = 100 * (1 / (1 + 10^(-d / 400)))
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3 (Optional): Calculate Team Bravo's predicted win in percent:
BravoWinPercent = 100 - AlphaWinPercent
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All of this is just a fancy way to say: the higher average MMR team has increased win probability, but both teams always retain some chance to win.
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Below is a table to help visualize the difference in team average MMR and how it could affect outcome of a match:
MMR Difference | Higher Team Win Percent | Lower Team Win Percent |
|---|---|---|
0 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
50 | 57.1% | 42.9% |
100 | 64.0% | 36.0% |
150 | 70.3% | 29.7% |
200 | 76.0% | 24.0% |
250 | 80.8% | 19.2% |
300 | 84.9% | 15.1% |
350 | 88.2% | 11.8% |
400 | 90.9% | 9.1% |
450 | 92.9% | 7.1% |
500 | 94.7% | 5.3% |
550 | 96.0% | 4.0% |
600 | 96.9% | 3.1% |
650 | 97.7% | 2.3% |
700 | 98.3% | 1.7% |
750 | 98.7% | 1.3% |
800 | 99.0% | 1.0% |
Turf War MMR
Estimated Skill Level
Using data from Inksight, a website that provides exact MMR values that are normally hidden, I analyzed nearly 200 North American Turf War matches played in May 2026 to estimate the skill level associated with each 100 MMR.
Please remember, the estimated skill level is my interpretation based on real MMR data. It is to give you a general idea where someone's skill could be, but a lot of factors can change their placement.
Turf War MMR | Estimated Skill Level |
|---|---|
2000 | Top 10 in X Rank |
1900 | Top 100 in X Rank |
1800 | Top 250 in X Rank |
1700 | Top 500 in X Rank |
1600 | Top 3,000 in X Rank |
1500 | Average Turf War Player |
1400 | S Rank |
1300 | A+ / A / A- Rank |
1200 | B+ / B / B- Rank |
1100 | C+ / C / C- Rank |